Avalanche Should Target Islanders’ Brock Nelson at Deadline

As the Colorado Avalanche have won six games in a row and moved into third in their division, some of the worry surrounding the team has gone away. What remains is the need for a second line centre that has been a topic of conversation since Nazem Kadri left for Calgary in the offseason. There are a number of centermen, rentals or players with years remaining, that have been linked to the Avalanche. But one that makes sense with the trend of this season and the organization is Brock Nelson.

Related: NHL Rumours: 3 High-Value Centers on the Avalanche’s Radar

The New York Islanders are falling fast. What was a promising start to the season has turned into an older team with next to no offence that is at the salary cap. The team has lost six in a row and 10 of the last 11 games, scoring 18 goals in that span. Their need for some scoring can’t be emphasized enough. It may not make sense then for them to consider trading their leading scorer and All-Star, but something has to change and they have to get younger. It may take a couple of years of rebuilding or retooling for them to get back to being a top team again. A trade with the Avalanche could help that along.

What Would the Avalanche Have to Give Up?

Young Talent

Since the Islanders have to get younger, they will want someone who is NHL-ready or already playing in the NHL as the main piece in a return for Nelson. This means someone like Alex Newhook looks like the clear option here. Nelson has two more years left on his deal with a cap hit of $6 million AAV, so it is a very good contract. If he were to get a new contract today with 18 goals and 43 points in 50 games, he would probably be making upwards of $1.5 million AAV more.

The Avalanche would not only get a second line centre for this season, they would also get him for two more during which time he shouldn’t regress. He may even start producing at a much higher pace being on an offensively-minded team like the Avalanche rather than a team that can’t score.

Cap Dump & Picks

The Avalanche would have to give up more than someone like Newhook. They would have to include more in the trade while also making sure they clear cap. With the cap situation, the most likely player who would be on the move is Samuel Girard. They essentially just acquired a younger version of him in Ryan Merkley who is making $863,333 instead of $5 million AAV for four more years. Whether the Avalanche would have to move Girard before the trade deadline remains to be seen with the health of Gabriel Landeskog, but teams would be interested in the speedy puck-mover. The cap hit isn’t horrible for some of the seasons he’s had, but he wouldn’t fit in Colorado anymore.

The Avalanche would also have to at least give up a high pick as well. This would likely be a first rounder and a mid-round pick. This is to account for Nelson being a fully developed player in his prime that would contribute more to the Avalanche in the next couple of seasons than Newhook. The young Avalanche centre has just 11 goals and 19 points in 46 games this season while centering the third line. He has proven he can’t center the second line this season.

The Benefit to the Islanders

The Islanders have to start getting younger and it doesn’t appear as though they are set to compete this season. They can’t go into a full rebuild with players like Matt Barzal, Ilya Sorokin, and Noah Dobson only getting better. In this case, they have to move some of their many veterans taking up roster spots and cap space on their roster. Some may not be easy to move, but some of their younger players need more opportunities to grow in the NHL.

Eight of the Islanders’ forwards are over 30 years old and signed through next season. Their identity line of Matt Marin, Casey Cizikas, and Cal Clutterbuck has become too expensive and less effective over the years. Some of the veterans will make it more difficult for the team to retool as there are some modified no-trade clauses involved. Nelson has a 16-team no-trade clause, but the Avalanche likely aren’t on there. Kyle Palmieri has a modified no-trade clause starting in the offseason while JG Pageau also currently has one.

If these teams strike a trade deadline deal of this capacity, it benefits both in terms of their timelines to win. The Avalanche’s is right now while the Islanders could be a few years away again.